» ‘My Phablet Skepticism Thesis’

Ben Bajarin weighs in on whether or not Apple will ship a 5.5-inch iPhone in addition to a 4.7-inch iPhone (short answer: he doesn’t see a reason why they would, but read the whole thing to find out why). I said the same thing using different evidence a year and a half ago.

Here’s something I find confusing about phablet fever. Bajarin notes that IDC estimates phablets will make up just 14 percent of the market this year. That’s actually down from what they said phablet shipments were in the third quarter of last year: 21 percent. It’s possible that the third quarter represented the high water mark for 2013 and the overall average was less but I’ve also heard estimates that place the current share for phablets at more like one-third of the market. IDC doesn’t think phablets will get there until 2018.

So, basically, phablets make up some percent of the market but no one’s really sure how much. Could be as much as 33 percent or as little as 14 percent. All we really know is that if Apple doesn’t ship one and now, they’re doomed.