» Google’s new math

John Kirk for Techpinions:

“Android” is not a single entity. So why do we add all of the “Android” numbers together? We do it because we assume that higher numbers mean a stronger platform. We use it as a proxy for the strength of the platform. But it just ain’t so.

Nowhere is this misunderstanding more demonstrated than in this piece by Don Reisinger which says Google has already won the tablet war. While “Android” may overtake iOS in tablet market share, that doesn’t make Google a winner if a good chunk of the “Android” share is Amazon and other forks.

There’s a lot of speculation that Samsung and Facebook will make their own forks and that, in response, Google will try to tighten the reins on Android, effectively forking their own OS. If that happens, Android won’t be so much fragmented anymore as totally fractured.

That could be the next thing that makes us look back at today’s market share projections and laugh.