» Turning This Car Around #70: Liam! Liam! Liam!

More summer fun time, some perspective on screen time and dance sensation Liam Friedman.

» Flopping into the lead

Strategy Analytics:

…global smartwatch shipments grew an impressive 457 percent annually to hit a record 5 million units in the second quarter of 2015. Apple Watch was the star performer, capturing a dominant 75 percent marketshare in first place.

While I have to note that their estimate of 4 million Apple Watches sold is just that, an estimate, it’s not very controversial. Ben Bajarin estimated Apple sold about 4.75 million units. Apple would only offer that it sold more than the iPhone and iPad in their respective first quarters, meaning more than 3.27 million.

Here are some things to consider about the state of Apple Watch demand for 2015, I think:

  • Early supply was heavily constrained, probably because of a bad supply of taptic engines, leading to a longer burn of pent-up demand throughout the second calendar quarter.
  • Tim Cook said on Tuesday that Apple sold more units in June than the previous months, despite those Slice numbers. That may or may not be due to finally being able to fulfill orders placed in April and May, though. His statement wasn’t clear on that point.
  • The Apple Watch requires an iPhone 5 or up. While that confines the size of the market, that market also grows every year as people still using older iPhones eventually upgrade and Apple’s vaunted switcher effect continues to bring in more customers.
  • Apple leads the pack, but the pack is still a pack made up of smartwatches. No one really knows how big this market is going to get and how long it’ll have steam. Let me repeat that for emphasis: No one really knows. So feel free to point and laugh at anyone estimating the next five years of smartwatch sales. Remember when Windows Phone was going to overtake Android? Good. Times. We laughed ourselves until we died and then we were reborn, shiny and chrome.
  • watchOS 2.0 will probably be a pretty big shot in the arm and coming this fall could allow the Watch to maintain momentum throughout the year.

It doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect that Watch sales will drop in the third calendar quarter and pop back up in the holiday quarter, like pretty much everything else. That Apple is clobbering the island of misfit toys that is the competition in the smartwatch market shouldn’t be surprising. By that measure, the Watch is quite successful. Which is why people are using manufactured yardsticks of their own devising to say that it isn’t.

» Other than that, how was the play, Mr. Dalrymple?

Jim Dalrymple has had enough of Apple Music:

At some point, enough is enough. That time has come for me—Apple Music is just too much of a hassle to be bothered with. Nobody I’ve spoken at Apple or outside the company has any idea how to fix it, so the chances of a positive outcome seem slim to none.

I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that many of Jim’s problems probably have solutions but the unfortunate fact is that it doesn’t matter. If Jim can’t figure it out, it’s probably not easy to figure out and it should be. That’s Apple Music’s biggest problem: It puts together some nice music but in a way that’s so convoluted it leaves a bad taste in your mouth.

» Apple Watch Satisfaction

Ben Bajarin reports on the results of a survey conducted on over 800 Apple Watch owners showing 97 percent customer satisfaction. I found this part interesting:

Then I talked with teachers, firefighters, insurance agents, and those not in the tech industry and not hard-core techies. These groups of people couldn’t stop raving about the Apple Watch and how much they loved the product. It was almost as if the farther away people were from tech or the tech industry, the more they liked the Apple Watch.

This is a panel study, so the respondents were people who opted in to the panel. Also, a few too many exclamation marks in the PDF for me.

» The Rebound #43: The Real Meaning of Prime Day

Guy English joins us this week and our Prime Day jokes are not to be missed.

» Turning This Car Around #69: Drinking Up to a New Level

This week on America’s most liquored up dadcast we ask is college worth it? Also, Lex and I discuss our drinking plans.

» Floppingly high

Ben Bajarin provides his estimate of the first quarter of Apple Watch sales which, of course, I can’t stress enough, is just an estimate. It’s an estimate that’s higher than the iPhone’s first quarter and higher than the iPad’s first quarter but, still, it’s just an estimate.

» El Capitan’s System Integrity Protection

Glenn Fleishman reports on security changes in El Capitan that will affect how some of your (my) favorite programs (SuperDuper) do the voodoo that they do do so well. Updates will be required but you can’t make a more secure omelette without breaking a few eggs.

» ‘It is simply too early to call the Apple Watch a flop’

Dan Frommer points this out for the obvious-impared. Of course the debate is “flop or not” instead of “hit or not” when we have very little idea. Such is the state of discourse about Apple.

» Apple’s new iPods

New colors and an A8 chip for the iPod touch which was desperately needed. My son had the previous A5-based model and it was fairly intolerable. I’m slightly surprised they didn’t bump up the screen size. Jason Snell suggests that puts some life into the idea that an updated 4-inch iPhone might come in September. As someone who chafes under the yoke of our phablet oppressors, I hope he’s right.