» NPD: Apple will lose quarter of tablet market by 2017

These market share predictions are pretty useless in general and this one is actually tame compared to others, having Apple still over 50 percent through 2017. But I wonder how even that’s going to happen given the current state of things. Apple owns the tablet market and the recent scuttlebutt has sales of the Kindle Fire, the one other tablet you could call successful, falling off. How are Android tablets going to come back? The sheer number of different kinds isn’t doing them any good. If selling them at a loss to drive media sales is only working marginally, what are Android OEMs supposed to do? How is Google going to get people to buy its “tablet of the highest quality” next month?

NPD has sales of Windows RT tablets being the bulk of Windows 8 tablets sold which rings true to me, but I still don’t see how these tablets really make a compelling case to buy one of them over the iPad.

I have been wrong about so many things that I can’t even begin to list them here (besides, they’re already on my Tumblog, fuckyeahjohnmoltziswrongagain.tumblr.com), so maybe I’m wrong about this, too. Probably, even. Grossly so. But right now it just seems like an act of faith to assume that Android and Windows 8 are going to take significant marketshare from the iPad.